Access to Energy. 2000 and After - download pdf or read online

By Melvin A. Conant

Conant explores how the transformation of oil from a advertisement commodity to a strategic uncooked fabric have replaced the face of worldwide strength politics. In an more and more interdependent international, Conant questions the precise of any country to withold very important provides from different international locations.

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Although there are political obstacles (northern islands issue, Japan's prowestern orientation, the nature of Japanese commercialexport markets, the effect of such a development on Tokyo-Peking relations) that would hinder such an alliance, there is a serious shortcoming in western strategic doctrine which assumes that future relations between Japan, Western Europe, and the United States will be continuations of post-1945 relations. When one considers the tremendous changes that have occurred in the geostrategic environment in the last two decades (Sino-Soviet rift, the expansion of Soviet-European trade to the point that the Soviet Union now provides 40 percent of Western Europe's imports of enriched uranium, the Sino-American efforts at rapprochement), there is little reason to believe that equally momentous changes will not occur during the remainder of the century, and the insatiable need for energy could be a primary cause.

MEXICO Mexico has a special legacy in the history of oil producer-consumer confrontation, since, unlike the rest of the producing world, this confrontation occurred before World War II. Although oil was first produced in Mexico around 1900, it was the oil requirements of World War I, combined with improvements in technology, that brought about a serious large-scale interest in Mexico. Indeed, Mexican production rose from 72,000 B/D in 1914 to 560,000 B/D in 1920. Most of this production was the result of British and American initiatives and was considered to be owned by their oil companies.

But if it is assumed that the magnitude of the proved and probable reserves is in the 60 billion barrel range, Mexico would still need to invest some $15 billion over the next six years to develop them. 1 MMB/D which would have little impact on the world petroleum market. Crucial to these forecasts are the sufficiency of reserves, the availability of technology, whether the requisite managerial skills need to be imported, and finally, whether Mexico can generate additional loans or investments of the necessary magnitude.

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Access to Energy. 2000 and After by Melvin A. Conant

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